Rio Rico, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

772
FXUS65 KTWC 172228
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 PM MST Fri Jan 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler air will result in below normal high temperatures
through Tuesday, along with cold mornings. Highs warm to near to
seasonable levels mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak upper level low exiting Arizona this afternoon
has resulted in gradually clearing skies across southeast Arizona
this afternoon. West to northwest winds behind this system will be
breezy to gusty this afternoon with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and
gusts to around 30 mph across Graham/Greenlee, and Cochise counties.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail the next 7 days with
afternoon high temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s through Tuesday.

Cooler air will gradually settle into the area behind this system
leading to some rather chilly overnights. Tonight, lows will be in
the low to mid 30s across the lower deserts with the coolest
temperatures in outlying areas and washes. The typical cold spots in
eastern Santa Cruz, the San Pedro River valley and the Sulphur
Springs valley will dip down into the mid teens to lower 20s. Winds
shift around to an easterly direction next Monday night through
Wednesday morning, with gusty east-southeast winds in locations
prone to easterly winds, especially during the morning hours on
Tuesday.

The threat for overnight low temperatures dipping below freezing
across our lower desert areas in Pima and Pinal counties returns
again Sunday morning through Wednesday morning. Right now, the NBM
gives Tucson International Airport a 20% chance of seeing freezing
temperatures on Sunday morning, 15% Monday morning, and 40% Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings. However, an easterly wind on Tuesday morning
may support temperatures remaining above freezing in wind prone
locations.

Looking ahead to the end of next week and beyond, ensembles suggest
another upper-low moving down the west coast. Both the timing and
specific trajectory of the low are still in question resulting in a
rather large range in both NBM maximum and minimum temperature box
and whisker plots. There is also the potential for ridging to
dominate the end of this period as well resulting in above normal
temperatures and continued dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 6-9k ft AGL through 18/03Z. West of a KCGZ to KTUS to
KOLS line, SFC winds WLY to NWLY with speeds less than 12 kts
through 18/03Z becoming variable in direction thereafter. For areas
east of this line in the vicinity of KDUG, KALK, and KSAD, SFC winds
WLY to NWLY 15-20 kts with occasional gusts to around 30 kts through
18/03Z diminishing to below 12 kts and becoming VRBL thereafter.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail across most of southeast
Arizona the next 7 days. Elevated west to northwest winds of 15-20
mph and gusts to 30-35 mph are expected this afternoon in Cochise,
Graham and Greenlee counties. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less
Saturday through Monday afternoon. Winds will shift around to an
easterly direction next Monday night through Wednesday morning, with
gusty east to southeast winds in locations exposed to that wind
direction. Min RH values will be 15-20 percent in the valleys
through Saturday, lowering to 8-14 percent Sunday into the middle of
next week. Min RH values in the mountains will be 25-40 percent
today, lowering to 20-30 percent Saturday and then down to 10-18
percent Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DVS

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